$TITLE A 12-region model of trade and capital flows SETS T TIME PERIODS /1990,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050/, R REGIONS /USA,JPN,EEC,OOE,EEX,CHN,FSU,IND,EET,DAE,BRA,ROW/ IP(T) ENDOGENOUS INVESMENT PERIOD (ALL BUT FINAL), TFIRST(T) FIRST PERIOD, TLAST(T) FINAL PERIOD; ALIAS (TT,T), (R,RR); TLAST(T) = YES$(ORD(T) EQ CARD(T)); TFIRST(T) = YES$(ORD(T) EQ 1); IP(T) = YES$(ORD(T) LT CARD(T)); TABLE MACRO(*, *) MACROECONOMIC AND OTHER PARAMETERS USA JPN EEC OOE EEX CHN FSU IND EET GNP0 5.522 2.938 6.053 1.652 1.100 0.365 2.329 0.255 0.281 BMROR 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 DELTA 4.84 5.89 3.65 4.33 3.47 2.89 5.89 3.17 4.00 KRATIO 2.60 2.30 3.32 2.86 3.00 3.50 3.40 3.00 3.00 KPVS .256 .250 .287 .267 .254 .276 .370 .245 .270 + DAE BRA ROW GNP0 .560 .414 .997 BMROR 0.05 0.05 0.05 DELTA 3.22 3.40 3.22 KRATIO 3.00 3.00 2.81 KPVS .247 .252 .231; TABLE X0(R,RR) Base year trade flows USA JPN EEC OOE EEX CHN USA 38.787 72.810 102.655 69.809 12.389 JPN 83.014 18.906 13.007 22.614 20.467 EEC 91.270 10.690 61.081 76.168 10.138 OOE 102.526 15.535 61.315 17.258 4.046 EEX 60.764 48.727 71.875 12.643 2.348 CHN 6.650 8.736 3.257 1.184 2.332 FSU 0.192 0.429 2.199 0.898 0.656 0.637 IND 3.688 1.733 2.949 0.476 0.696 0.085 EET 2.858 0.384 13.885 3.418 3.895 2.891 DAE 56.734 16.582 14.222 7.636 12.305 15.983 BRA 8.195 1.752 7.011 1.525 4.350 0.845 ROW 32.291 10.788 76.255 13.358 14.390 3.940 + FSU IND EET DAE BRA ROW USA 0.806 2.336 1.808 28.347 3.745 41.857 JPN 1.391 1.383 0.376 27.066 0.546 13.152 EEC 5.840 4.588 12.063 14.219 2.271 69.996 OOE 3.150 1.366 3.036 7.047 0.815 14.890 EEX 5.395 5.866 3.948 17.744 7.433 16.826 CHN 0.682 0.165 1.322 14.067 0.722 3.635 FSU 0.234 15.638 0.052 0.010 4.135 IND 1.673 0.267 0.947 0.002 0.589 EET 22.960 0.304 0.313 0.200 4.336 DAE 0.521 1.158 0.303 0.149 10.409 BRA 0.181 0.329 0.528 0.551 3.266 ROW 12.919 1.695 21.955 17.087 2.222; TABLE GROW(T,R) POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH RATES - ANNUAL PERCENT USA JPN EEC OOE EEX CHN FSU IND EET 1990 2.56 3.70 2.18 2.19 3.63 4.55 2.60 4.64 2.66 2000 2.13 2.73 1.66 1.67 3.42 4.38 2.13 4.44 2.18 2010 2.13 2.73 1.66 1.67 3.42 4.38 2.13 4.44 2.18 2020 1.63 2.22 1.28 1.29 2.69 3.43 1.64 3.40 1.70 2030 1.63 2.22 1.28 1.29 2.69 3.43 1.64 3.40 1.70 2040 1.63 2.22 1.28 1.29 2.69 3.43 1.64 3.40 1.70 2050 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 + DAE BRA ROW 1990 4.37 4.38 3.50 2000 4.16 4.17 3.12 2010 4.16 4.17 3.12 2020 3.23 3.24 2.36 2030 3.23 3.24 2.36 2040 3.23 3.24 2.36 2050 1.50 1.50 1.50; PARAMETER GNP0(R) Benchmark gross output BMROR(R) Benchmark rates of return DELTA(R) Capital depreciation rates KRATIO(R) Capital:GDP ratio KPVS(R) Capital's value share LS(R,T) Labor supply QREF(R,T) Reference price (for scaling) PREF(R,T) Reference price (for scaling) PKBAR(R) Base year gross rate of return K1(R) Base year capital stock L1(R) Base year labor supply C1(R) Base year consumption SRVSHR(R) One period capital survival share UDR(T,R) Utility discount rate UDF(T,R) Utility discount factor; GNP0(R) = MACRO("GNP0",R); BMROR(R) = MACRO("BMROR",R); DELTA(R) = MACRO("DELTA",R)/100; KRATIO(R) = MACRO("KRATIO",R); KPVS(R) = MACRO("KPVS",R); UDR(T,R) = BMROR(R) - GROW(T,R)/100; DISPLAY UDR; UDF(TFIRST,R) = 1; LOOP(T, UDF(T+1,R) = UDF(T,R) / (1+UDR(T,R))**10; ); UDF(TLAST,R) = UDF(TLAST,R) / (1-1/(1+UDR(TLAST,R))**10); X0(R,RR) = X0(R,RR) / 1000; PKBAR(R) = BMROR(R) + DELTA(R); K1(R) = KRATIO(R) * (GNP0(R)-SUM(RR, X0(R,RR))); L1(R) = GNP0(R) - SUM(RR, X0(RR,R)) - K1(R) * PKBAR(R); C1(R) = GNP0(R) - SUM(RR, X0(R,RR)); DISPLAY K1,L1; * ONE PERIOD CAPITAL SURVIVAL SHARE: SRVSHR(R) = 1 - 3 * DELTA(R); LS(R,TFIRST) = L1(R); LOOP(T, LS(R,T+1) = LS(R,T) * (1+GROW(T,R)/100)**3; ); PREF(R,T) = UDF(T,R) / LS(R,T); LOOP(TFIRST, PREF(R,T) = PREF(R,T) / PREF(R,TFIRST); QREF(R,T) = LS(R,T) / LS(R,TFIRST); ); $ONTEXT $MODEL:MRT $COMMODITIES: PU(R) ! Utility price index PL(R,T) ! Wage index PY(R,T) ! Output price index PK(R,T) ! Capital price index RK(R,T) ! Return to capital $SECTORS: U(R) ! Utility index Y(R,T) ! Output index K(R,T) ! Capital stock I(R,T)$IP(T) ! Investment $CONSUMERS: RA(R) ! Representative agent * MACRO PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS. $PROD:Y(R,T) s:1 O:PY(R,T) Q:GNP0(R) I:RK(R,T) Q:K1(R) P:PKBAR(R) I:PL(R,T) Q:L1(R) I:PY(RR,T) Q:X0(RR,R) $PROD:K(R,T) I:PK(R,T) I:PY(R,T)$TLAST(T) Q:(GROW(T,R)/100+DELTA(R)) O:RK(R,T) O:PK(R,T+1) Q:SRVSHR(R) $PROD:I(R,T)$IP(T) I:PY(R,T) O:PK(R,T+1) Q:3 * UTILITY: $PROD:U(R) s:1 O:PU(R) Q:(GNP0(R)*SUM(T,PREF(R,T))) I:PY(R,T) Q:(GNP0(R)*QREF(R,T)) P:PREF(R,T) $REPORT: V:C(R,T) I:PY(R,T) PROD:U(R) * ENDOWMENTS: $DEMAND:RA(R) E:PK(R,TFIRST) Q:K1(R) E:PL(R,T) Q:LS(R,T) D:PU(R) $OFFTEXT $SYSINCLUDE mpsgeset MRT * SPECIFY INITIAL ESTIMATES FOR PRICES AND OUTPUT LEVELS. * BASED ON BALANCED GROWTH. PY.L(R,T) = PREF(R,T); PL.L(R,T) = PREF(R,T); PK.L(R,T) = PREF(R,T); RK.L(R,T) = PKBAR(R) * PREF(R,T); Y.L(R,T) = QREF(R,T); K.L(R,T) = K1(R) * QREF(R,T); I.L(R,T) = (GROW(T,R)+DELTA(R)) * K.L(R,T); * GIVE THE SOLVERS A CHANCE - FIRST SOLVE THE FIXED * INCOME RELAXATION: RA.FX(R) = GNP0(R) * SUM(T, PREF(R,T)); $INCLUDE MRT.GEN SOLVE MRT USING MCP; * THEN SOLVE THE FULLY ENDOGENOUS INCOME MODEL: RA.UP(R) = +INF; RA.LO(R) = 0; $INCLUDE MRT.GEN SOLVE MRT USING MCP; PARAMETER REPORT(T,*); REPORT(T,R) = PY.L(R,T) / PY.L("USA",T); DISPLAY REPORT;